- Title
- Pacific decadal variability over the last 2000 years and implications for climatic risk
- Creator
- Vance, Tessa R.; Kiem, Anthony S.; Jong, Lenneke M.; Roberts, Jason L.; Plummer, Christopher T.; Moy, Andrew D.; Curran, Mark A. J.; van Ommen, Tas D.
- Relation
- ARC.DP180102522 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP180102522
- Relation
- Communications Earth & Environment Vol. 3, no. 33
- Publisher Link
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00359-z
- Publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- Resource Type
- journal article
- Date
- 2022
- Description
- The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, an index which defines decadal climate variability throughout the Pacific, is generally assumed to have positive and negative phases that each last 20-30 years. Here we present a 2000-year reconstruction of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, obtained using information preserved in Antarctic ice cores, that shows negative phases are short (7 ± 5 years) and infrequent (occurring 10% of the time) departures from a predominantly neutral-positive state that lasts decades (61 ± 56 years). These findings suggest that Pacific Basin climate risk is poorly characterised due to over-representation of negative phases in post-1900 observations. We demonstrate the implications of this for eastern Australia, where drought risk is elevated during neutral-positive phases, and highlight the need for a re-evaluation of climate risk for all locations affected by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. The initiation and future frequency of negative phases should also be a research priority given their prevalence in more recent centuries.
- Subject
- Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation index; climate variability; Pacific; Pacific Basin climate risk; SDG 13; Sustainable Development Goals
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1469743
- Identifier
- uon:48301
- Identifier
- ISSN:2662-4435
- Rights
- This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
- Language
- eng
- Full Text
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Goal 13: Climate Change
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